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How to Become a River-bet Captain
When playing No Limit Texas Hold'em nothing makes cards shrink more than a big river bet. Especially in a tournament, what was once a very respectable two pair can become a nasty headache when your opponent bets big on the river. Here are some tips for dealing with bets on the river.
Know your Opponent: The single most important thing that you ever do at the poker table is watch other people play. How often they bet, how often they call, how often they re-raise, how they use table position and anything else you care to take note of. From this general framework, you can begin to figure out what poker cards a particular player is likely to be holding. Generally speaking players fall into one of four categories: tight-aggressive (they don't play many hands but when they do play, they play for a lot of money), tight-passive (they don't play many hands and they rarely raise - basically you should be taking money from a tight-passive player with ease), loose-aggressive (they play a lot of hands and they play them strong) and loose-passive (they play a lot of hands but seldom make any substantial bets.) There have been oodles of articles and books written about exactly how to classify poker players so I'll stop with those very rudimentary ones - suffice it to say that without a basic idea of how your opponent plays then you might as well buy lottery tickets because the only way you're winning is if you get lucky.
Work Backwards: After your opponent has made a big river bet, you should review all of the betting that has occurred in the hand. Rather than go from pre-flop betting to the river, work backwards from the river to pre-flop. Let's say that the board reads 4H 6H JS AS JC with the Ace of Spades being the turn card and the Jack of Clubs being the river. Your opponent is a tight-aggressive player who has about $10,000 in chips, the same amount as you. We'll call him Stud. The pot is $6000 and Stud has gone all-in. You have A 5 of Clubs, giving you top pair and a couple of Jacks to go with them. The bet is for all of your chips and your tournament life.
1. River Bet, board reads 4H 6H JS AS JC: So we already know that a tight-aggressive player named Stud has moved all-in which just about puts you all in. What could Stud make that kind of a bet with? The board reads 4H 6H JS AS JC so he could have the nuts, quad Jacks or a full house and Stud just wants to get as many chips into the pot as possible. Maybe, probably not though. Generally whenever a player has the nuts (best hand possible) they make a value bet or a bet that they want you to call. It could definitely be a stone-cold bluff on a broken draw. Maybe he's got something like 5-7 and had a straight draw that didn't come true. He could have two hearts, something like 10H QH, maybe even JH QH which would give him a set of Jacks. He's an aggressive player so he could make a bluff, especially on a paired board with 2 bad draws (it's a paired board because there are two Jacks, and there are two bad draws because on the flop both a straight draw and a flush draw were possible but never came to fruition.) The guy could really have anything.
2. Turn Bet, board reads 4H 6H JS AS: So moving from the river bet backwards, we now look at what he did on the turn. We know that Stud could have anything from a bold-faced lie to quads - let's see if his turn bet says anything. On the turn, Stud bet $800 and you (having picked up a pair of Aces) raised to $2500. But Stud called, and he called rather quickly. So he has to have something that he would just call an additional $1700 rather than go over the top right then and there. A quick call, or a call that a player doesn't take much time to think about, usually means the player is on the draw and is anxious to see the next card. Usually. Of course players with the Nuts can do just about anything, even tight players. Judging from his turn bet, your astute re-raise and his quick call, it sure looks like he's on the draw. Just to be sure though, let's look at the flop betting.
3. Flop Bet, board reads 4H 6H JS: Interestingly, Stud checked on the flop. Almost any time that a tight-aggressive player is in a pot he is likely to bet or raise, unless he has been forced into the pot as a blind. But from the overbet on the river (an overbet is a bet that is bigger than the size of the pot) and the quick call on the turn, we're loosely putting him on a broken flush draw. Wouldn't an aggressive player bet on a draw on the flop? As a matter of fact, an aggressive player would almost always bet on a flush or straight draw. You didn't have anything on the flop so you had followed his check with a check of your own. Now you're perplexed. What hand could a tight-aggressive player check on the flop with, call a re-raise on the turn, then go all-in with on the river? Is it possible that Stud does have the nuts? Let's look at what happened before the flop ever hit.
4. Pre-Flop Bet, blinds $50/$100: You were on the button and the table had folded around to you. You took a peak at AC 5C and decided to call the big blind rather than to get fussy with a suited Ace-baby (Ace-baby refers to a hand with an Ace and a small card like a 2 or a 3 or, in this case, a 5.) Stud was the big blind and raised to $500. You figured that a suited Ace and position was worth taking a look at the flop with so you had called. But what could Stud have raised with out of position like that? Maybe a pocket pair, maybe a big Ace like AK or AQ. He is a tight player so he probably has one of those. But if he had a pocket pair why wouldn't he make a continuation bet on the flop (a continuation bet is a bet that you make with any two cards on the flop following a bet you've made pre-flop. It is a continuation of the momentum of your first bet.)
Build it back up: Now we take all of the backwards analysis and put it together.
*He raised pre-flop.
Maybe he has something like pocket fours, sixes or Jacks which would explain the pre-flop raise. He could have AK or AQ. He probably isn't bluffing because he's a tight player.
*He checked the flop.
A tight-aggressive player would usually make a continuation bet on the flop, especially if they were first to act. Either Stud was conceding the pot on the flop or he had flopped something huge like a set or even a nut flush draw on AH KH. Rather than bet out at that flop, maybe he figured that he would trap or maybe even check-raise. But you followed with a check.
*He bet the turn and quickly called your re-raise.
The turn came an Ace which gave you top pair. But Stud made an $800 bet which was about 80% of the $1050 pot (small blind plus pre-flop bet and call of $500.) Not a big bet into a pot like that. When you came over the top he probably figured that you didn't have a flush or straight draw because if you did have a draw, you would have probably bet the flop. Especially because you called the pre-flop bet, he probably figured that you had a pair of Aces.
*He went all-in on the river
We are pretty sure that ole' Stud is not bluffing after being on the draw because he didn't bet the flop. So maybe the quick call was just an act to throw you off. After all, the overbet on the river reeks of a broken flush draw at first glance, which is exactly what Stud would want you to think if he was pretending to be on the draw with that quick call. Which makes sense taking into account his pre-flop raise followed by that check on the flop.
Now that we've looked at the hand backwards and forwards, Stud could very easily have a full house, maybe even quads and at least has AK or AQ of Hearts, all of which beat your A5. You should probably fold.
The importance of a basic read on your opponent cannot be overstated. At multiple points throughout that process we had to intermingle what Stud actually did with what we expected him to do. The differences and overlaps between our expectations and his actions are what paint the picture of the hand and (should) shape your major decisions. While it may seem like methodical overkill to go backwards through a hand then re-build it, when you look at a hand from the river backwards you are giving yourself a different perspective from which to analyze it, and this other perspective can be worth a lot of money.
About the Author
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